From: Mike Francis
[mikefrancis] Sent: Tuesday, September 14,
2004 8:40 AM To:
mikefrancis Subject: NAR Expects Record
Existing-Home Sales this Year
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NAR Expects Record Existing-Home Sales this Year |
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| On pace for record year for existing-home sales in
2004 |
September 14th, 2004 | |
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Sunday
WASHINGTON (September 7, 2004) - Greater than expected sales of
existing homes in the first seven months of the year will help set a
record for annual existing-home sales in 2004, according to the National
Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales will increase about 6.5
percent this year to 6.50 million.
New-home sales also are expected to rise to a record level this year,
to 1.16 million, up 7.1 percent. Housing starts are forecast to increase
4.8 percent to 1.94 million in 2004, the strongest pace since 1978 when
baby boomers were entering the market en masse.  Presented by Mike Francis
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Buyers to continue to exceed Sellers in
04 |
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David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said a continued decline in
mortgage interest rates is creating favorable market conditions at a time
when household formation is rising. Though NAR projects the 30-year fixed-
rate mortgage to slowly rise to 6.0 percent in the fourth quarter, the
average rate for the entire year should be 5.9 percent, the second-lowest
annual average since the mid 1960s. The lowest rate in recent years was
5.8 percent in 2003.
"Price appreciation is projected to be only slightly higher than
historic norms next year, as supply levels come closer to market demand.
Although we expect the number of home buyers to continue to exceed the
number of sellers, the situation should improve in 2005," Lereah said.
The national median existing-home price for all of 2004 is expected to
rise 7.5 percent to $182,700. At the same time, the median new-home price
will grow by 8.9 percent to $212,300. "Home prices will continue to rise
above historic norms as long as we have tight inventories of homes
available for sale," Lereah said.
He expects the U.S. gross domestic product to grow 4.5 percent this
year, while the Consumer Price Index should rise by 2.7 percent. The
unemployment rate is projected to drop to 5.2 percent in the fourth
quarter.

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Home prices will probably keep rising |
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Washington -- For anybody who tracks home appreciation rates,
the latest federal numbers are both stunning and sobering:
-- The average home in the United States gained in market value by 9.4
percent from mid-2003 to mid- 2004. That average increase is more than
three times the rate of inflation for goods and services in the economy
overall during the same period, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.
-- Average gains in a record 74 metropolitan housing markets were in
double digits for those 12 months. Ten markets saw price gains over 20
percent, topped by Las Vegas, where the average increase was like a casino
jackpot -- 25 percent.
-- No metropolitan housing market experienced net losses in average
home values last year, and only two states, Texas and Utah, saw their
average housing appreciation rate drop below the 3.03 percent rise in the
Consumer Price Index.
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Report: Fed Seen Raising Rates Next Week |
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Sept. 14, 2004 - NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve
is likely next week to raise its target federal funds rate to 1.75 percent
from 1.5 percent, nearing the end of the first stage of what appears to be
a two-stage plan to return rates to "normal" levels, the Wall Street
Journal said on Tuesday.
The article by Fed-watcher Greg Ip contained no direct attribution to
Fed officials. But Ip has made enough correct calls on central bank policy
to make financial markets highly sensitive to his reports.
The Fed is expected to announce any decision on rates next Tuesday at
2:15 p.m. EDT.
The newspaper said the first phase of Fed tightening will cause the
funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, to rise to 2 percent
between next week and the Fed's December meeting. It had stood through
June at a 46-year low of 1 percent.
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